By: Mark McCrindle
In the hushed corridors of maternity wards across the developed world, something remarkable is happening.
With each passing year, fewer cries of new-borns echo through these halls—yet paradoxically, in countries like Australia, there is a greater number of babies are being born than during the celebrated baby boom of the 1960s. Despite this, the total fertility rate continues to drop.
This is the puzzling reality of our modern fertility landscape. In 1960, the total fertility rate was 3.3 children per woman on average across OECD countries. Fast forward to 2022, and that number has declined to just 1.5 children per woman.
Australia’s story mirrors this global shift. From 1961 when the fertility rate peaked at 3.55 children per woman, we’ve witnessed a steady decline to today’s historic low of 1.5. But there’s a nuance to this. Despite this dramatic drop in family size, and birth rates at an all-time low, the number of births is higher than the historical baby boom. In 1961, 239,986 births were recorded. Today 50,000 more births were recorded than in 1961 (286,998).
The Population Paradox
Today’s birth rate of 1.5 is below the replacement level, which is an average of 2.1 births per women.
The current birth rate of 1.5 children per woman seems robust when counting total births, but it falls short of the replacement level of 2.1, the number needed for a population to sustain itself without immigration. This isn’t a recent change; Australia has been below this threshold for the last 50 years, since falling under 2.15 in 1975. In 2008, following the introduction of the baby bonus, fertility rates climbed to 2.02—tantalizingly close to replacement level. But the trend didn’t last.
An Ageing Population
A low fertility rate does more than change family dynamics – it gradually reshapes the structure of society in ways that touch everything from healthcare to economic growth.
If Australia’s fertility rate continues its downward trajectory at 1.5 children per woman, we face a future where grey hair becomes more common than childish laughter. Based on its current trajectory, by 2026 it is expected that those aged over 65 will outnumber children under 15 .
This represents a fundamental shift in the population pyramid as it becomes inverted, where young workers will be required to generate more economic output to support both themselves and a growing cohort of retirees.
The implications of this are that working-age Australians will shoulder increasingly heavy burdens – funding pension systems, staffing healthcare facilities, and maintaining economic productivity while caring for an expanding elderly population.
Changing Attitudes Towards Parenthood
Despite declining fertility rates, Australians still want to be parents. The dream of family hasn’t faded – it’s just being reimagined for the modern era.
According to our nationally representative survey, 62% of Australians are parents already, while 18% hope to be in the future. Only 12% have deliberately chosen a child-free life, while 5% are unsure if they want children. For 3% of Australians, they wanted to, but they couldn’t have children.
At the same time as the fertility rate has been declining, society’s attitudes towards parenting have also been changing. Three in five Australians (59%) strongly or somewhat agree that there is an expectation to establish a career and be financially stable before having children.
While 64% strongly/somewhat agree that there is a greater responsibility for raising children to be shared equally between the partners, this is not always the case. Despite greater participation of women in education and the workforce, women are often still carrying a greater share of the domestic and unpaid labour of the home, and it is young females under 35 (66%) who are most likely to agree that society doesn’t place enough value on the sacrifice to have children (compared to 46% under 35 males).
Today, many look for personal fulfilment outside of having a family, and having children is something that young adults are now encouraged to intentionally question (41%). Alongside this, while many believe the joys and rewards of having children are well celebrated (62%), half believe that society doesn’t place enough value on the sacrifice to have children (53%)
Based on its current trajectory, by 2026 it is expected that those aged over 65 will outnumber children under 15.
Finances Are The Driving Concerns Around Having Children
Stability and confidence are the driving considerations when embarking on the journey of parenthood, particularly with regards to finances and affordability. Nearly half of all Australians (49%) cite the cost of raising children as their primary concern about parenthood. This is followed by wanting to be financially secure before having children (33%) and economic uncertainty (28%). A quarter are concerned about the state of the future world (26%) and falling short as a parent (25%).
The story of Australia’s fertility landscape is one of striking contradictions. While birth rates have fallen to historic lows of 1.5 children per woman, the actual number of births exceeds that of the baby boom era. Meanwhile, the desire for parenthood remains strong, yet financial concerns cast shadows over these aspirations.
If the current cost to parenthood is perceived to be too high, policies that can practically ease the financial and emotional costs to having children, could be considered. Alongside rebuilding the social conversation around valuing strong families and celebrating the joys and beauty of family life.
Article supplied with thanks to McCrindle.
About the Author: McCrindle are a team of researchers and communications specialists who discover insights, and tell the story of Australians – what we do, and who we are.
Feature image: Canva
